Insurance Risk Forecasting

This application area focuses on forecasting key insurance risk drivers—such as asset-liability mismatches and mortality trends—to improve capital planning, pricing, and balance sheet management. It replaces or augments traditional stochastic and actuarial models with faster, more granular, and more adaptive forecasting tools that can handle complex market dynamics and evolving policyholder behavior. The goal is to project future cash flows, liabilities, and capital needs under a wide range of scenarios with higher accuracy and much shorter run times. In practice, this means using advanced models to simulate how assets and liabilities evolve together, and to anticipate changes in mortality and longevity patterns across cohorts, geographies, and time. By providing more reliable projections for ALM and mortality, insurers and pension funds can reduce mispricing and reserving risk, optimize investment strategies, and respond more quickly to shocks such as interest-rate shifts or health crises. This leads to better capital allocation, stronger solvency positions, and more competitive product offerings.